At the end of June and the beginning of July, the photovoltaic industry has reached a new historical node.

The first is that the price of upstream silicon material has reached a new high of 290,000 yuan/ton, breaking the high price set in November last year in one fell swoop.

Secondly, driven by the surge in silicon materials, the prices of mid-stream and downstream silicon wafers, cells, modules, etc. have followed suit.

Once again, there are constant rumors in the industry. The most influential one is the rumor that the photovoltaic module factory has stopped production, reduced production, and jointly stopped production to resist the rumors of upstream price increases.

A similar scene happened last year.

In June last year, downstream battery manufacturers attacked upstream silicon material companies at an industry meeting held by the competent authorities, asking the competent authorities to limit prices.

As a result, the market has its own laws of market operation. The price of silicon material continued to surge after the industry meeting. It was not until 5 months later, when it reached a high of more than 270,000 yuan/ton in November, that the price began to fall due to the weakening of downstream demand.

This year's latest round of price hikes caused by the strong demand for upstream silicon materials in the middle and lower reaches also attracted rumors of downstream resistance to price increases.

According to the current public information, the rumors that the module factory has stopped production and reduced production have been confirmed to be unfounded.

A number of leading component factories have publicly stated that there is no major change in production capacity at present, "but if there is a loss in future orders, the possibility of making an overhaul schedule or even a production shutdown plan cannot be ruled out."

From the perspective of the current ecology of the photovoltaic industry, under the background of the overall booming of the photovoltaic industry chain, the upstream, middle and downstream links of the industry have experienced price increases, so the bargaining power and the ability to transmit price increases, the upstream will be stronger than the downstream. This can be clearly seen from the rumored component companies resisting price increases.

In addition, judging from the recent stock market pricing, although the overall trend of photovoltaic industry stocks is relatively strong, the overall trend of upstream stocks is stronger than that of downstream stocks.

Taking today's (5th) stock trend as an example, module company JinkoSolar (688223.SH) led the decline, followed by JA Solar (002459.SZ), LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) ) and other component companies have fallen to varying degrees as of the close. However, Daqo Energy (688303.SH), a silicon material company, rose 5.09% to close at 77.03 yuan; TBEA (600089.SH) rose 4.99% to close at 30.72 yuan; Tongwei (600438.SH) rose 3.23% to close at 30.72 yuan. at 67.75 yuan.

It can be said that the photovoltaic market this year is still repeating the scene of last year. The photovoltaic industry as a whole is facing the pressure of rising prices, and the biggest winners are the upstream silicon companies.

Taking the performance forecast for the first half of 2022 disclosed today by Tongwei, a leading silicon material company, as an example, Tongwei expects a net profit of 12 billion-12.5 billion yuan in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 304.62%-321.48%.

In 2021, Tongwei's revenue will be 63.491 billion yuan, and its net profit will be 8.208 billion yuan.

Judging from the latest performance forecast, this also means that Tongwei Co., Ltd. completed the task of last year in only half a year this year.

In the first quarter of this year, Tongwei’s net profit attributable to the parent was 5.194 billion yuan, which also means that in the second quarter, Tongwei is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.806-7.306 billion yuan attributable to the parent, and the net profit attributable to the parent in a single quarter may once again set a new record high .

In addition, Shuangliang Energy Saving (600481), the leader of polysilicon reduction furnace equipment that is also in the upstream of photovoltaics, also disclosed a big positive forecast in the interim report today.

Shuangliang Energy Conservation announced that the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 320 million to 390 million yuan in the first half of 2022, a year-on-year increase of 212% to 281%.

However, the industry as a whole is under pressure to increase prices, which does not mean that companies in the industry will generally make a lot of money. Instead, the industry will eliminate a group of companies that cannot adapt to the impact of price increases due to a new round of price increases.

A component manufacturer said that the downstream is under great pressure on the high price of the upstream. "Now the quotations of components are more than two yuan (2.1 yuan), and the winning bids are all about one yuan, eight to one yuan, and eighty five cents (1.8 yuan to 1.85 yuan). ), we simply can’t start work.”

According to the analysis of CITIC Construction Investment, "As of now, terminal acceptance is still sluggish. In the next July and August, the pull of domestic demand and projects is expected to be limited by high prices."

Although module manufacturers have slightly adjusted their price quotations in July (the increase is about 0.02 yuan to 0.05 yuan per watt), the terminal demand and acceptance still need to wait for the upstream price of the supply chain to be determined, and the start of construction in July may occur. Variety.